You're always using a model. Is it the right one?
You are hiking in the wilderness. The scenery is breathtaking. Nature everywhere around you. Fresh air. Birds chirping. Exactly what you needed to take your mind off your problems for a bit.
But you’re so absorbed by this beautiful moment that you actually stop paying attention to where you’re going, and now you’re lost. Everything looks different all of a sudden, and the familiar trail you’ve been following is now gone.
What do you do?
Most people do a version of the following. They keep walking. They look for things they might have seen before, and when they don’t find them, they keep moving. Find a road, follow a stream, go around a hill. Movement = progress. The trail or parking lot is “just ahead”.
These people become increasingly anxious as time passes, and soon get themselves into more trouble than when they started. Most deaths in the wilderness occur in the first 48 hours of being lost, and in many cases caused by irrational decisions based on fear.
Not everyone is like this, however. Instead, some people choose to stop. They stay put, check their surroundings carefully, and plan. They try to build shelter, find materials to make signals or fire, and try to conserve energy. As you can probably guess, these people have a much better chance at surviving1.
The thing that sets the second group apart from the first one: the mental model that they are running.
Mental models are simplifications of reality that run in our heads all the time, allowing us make sense of the massive amounts of information all around us. They help us determine what we pay attention to, and with that information, predict — to some extent — the consequences of our actions.
The first group has a mental model that says “you have to find the way”. The target is the trail you left a while ago. It makes them focus on big things that they can potentially recognize from before like big rocks, rivers, trails, etc. It predicts that if they just keep moving they’ll eventually find the way they came from.
The second group’s model says “you have to be findable”. The target is you, and someone else will do the finding. This shifts the focus to food, water, potential shelter locations, materials for making a signal, etc. It predicts that the more findable you are, the better your chances at escaping.
Choosing the right model might be a matter of life or death in some cases.
You are always using models
In fact, this applies to much more than hiking. Mental models are a necessity for intelligent life. Reality is too complicated to fit entirely in our heads, so we must simplify it considerably for it to make any sense to us.
We are always using models, for everything we do, whether you’re aware of it or not. From going to the grocery shop, to finding your soulmate, to deciding who you’ll vote for. No matter the task, you need a model to act rationally in any setting.
And, as the hiking example hopefully made clear, which mental model you use greatly determines how effective you’ll be at the task you’re doing. A bad model makes you focus on the wrong things, and misjudge the consequences of your actions.
Imagine there is a door between you and your goals. The door is unlocked, but it is very heavy. Having a bad model is like trying to open the door by pushing close to the hinge — ineffective, wasteful.
Having a good model is pushing close to the handle. Maximum impact, minimum effort.
Whenever you want to influence the world, using the right model means pushing where you have the most leverage.
So it would be good to ask yourself: how good are my models?
Well, you probably have some good models, and some bad models.
Most models are unconsciously acquired
Usually, people don’t go around consciously trying to model reality for their goals. Most can’t even tell the difference between reality and their models, to start with. Instead, they passively absorb models from other people (without noticing they’re just that, models not descriptions of reality).
On one side, this is somewhat positive, and makes living in society easier for everyone. “This is how we sit at the table and eat”, “this is how status works”, “this is what a job is”, “this is what success is like”, “these are the limits we don’t cross”, etc.
But what’s best for society is not necessarily what’s best for any individual. Who can guarantee that these models you have acquired are good models for your goals?
No one, dear reader.
Here’s one example. How are friends made?
Depending on where you grew up and what the people around thought about how friends are made, you might have the following, somewhat popular, model.
Making friends is something you do when you’re young, maybe when you’re in school. For some reason or another you click with another kid, then you start being friends. If you’re lucky and don’t move around too much you get to take some of these youth friendships with you in adult life.
When you’re a grownup, making friends is not really something that you do, is something that happens to you. Every now and then (kinda rare) you and another person “click”, because there’s some magical spark between you that forms a bond. It’s somewhat instantaneous and automatic. No one needs to make an effort. You just let it happen. You maybe meet at a party in a common friend’s house, then meet again somewhere else, then again, and the next thing you know you have a new friend.
Precisely because of the “magical” aspect of it, you can’t force it. You can’t go out and say “I want to make new friends now”. Because of the magic in it and the spontaneity, trying to make friends is artificial and cringe, and other people will be put off if you do.
Do you have this — or a slightly different version — as your model for making friends? If so, imagine having a goal like “I want to make more friends”, or “I want to have better friends”. With this low-agency model described above, you’re out of luck. At best it’ll be an uphill battle, focusing on the wrong things, feeling cringe all the time. You’re pushing the door at the hinge.
Awareness gives you choice
Talking about the friendship model the way we did — not as reality, but as a model to navigate it + something separate from yourself — allows us to ask that important question: is this model helping me achieve my goals?
And maybe (lucky you) you don’t have that as your model for making friends. But imagine how many other bad models might be running in your head without you even noticing? Models that you acquired without realizing, that decide how you understand the world.
Not knowing which models you’re using for a goal is like trying to open the metaphorical door from before with your eyes closed. Sure, you might by chance push in the right spot, but you might also be unlucky and be pushing the wrong one for a long time. It’s out of your control.
Being aware of your models is opening your eyes. Don’t leave your effectiveness to chance, look where you’re trying to push the door.
Here, let’s try this right now. What’s one important goal you have in life at the moment?
Take a minute to think: what model do I use to try and achieve this goal? Does it make sense? Is it helping me or hindering me? Leave a comment and let’s discuss it.
Next up: techniques to help you elicit these unconscious models you have in your head. Stay tuned!
Assuming someone knows they’re out in the wilderness. Always tell at least one person if you’ll be hiking, and where.